March 6: A lot of people still thinking drumming up fear is bad.

What’s really terrifying is that people are underestimating the severity of the outbreak based on a shoddy understanding of the data, and then telling the public how to feel.

That only makes the public feel worse. Fear contains outbreaks. Transparency and actual preparedness (not empty words) contains fear. A call for calm does not contain fear.

This piece is an example of naive linear thinking and incompetent use of data. This perspective is a danger to the public.

You are saying that the virus is not as lethal as made out to be in the media, and that the subsequent panic is causing people to stockpile and not support businesses.

You ignore the fact that virus contagion follows multiplicative dynamics, which evolves much more quickly than people can imagine.

“…Italy’s population is 60.48 million, and that while 650 cases and seventeen deaths is concerning, I should get things in perspective.”

Two months ago, Wuhan had only a handful of cases, but now they have over 45,000 confirmed cases (which is an underestimate according to experts(link), and includes the effect of draconian containment measures). You are now making an assessment of the outbreak in Italy, with a static perspective, at the beginning of the outbreak. Do you know how exponential growth works? A small number turns into an unimaginably large number in a very short period of time. Who knows if they can mobilize and contain the outbreak in time.

You say the virus is not going to kill most infected people, and that the flu gives an important perspective.

“I looked up the statistics for influenza in Italy. They are a revelation. At this moment there are over 600,000 people in bed with flu (“normal” flu, not Coronavirus). The average death rate from flu-related illness over the last five years is 8000 a year.

That puts things in perspective, doesn’t it?”

“Most people unlucky enough to be affected by the virus will recover.”

This first order thinking totally misses the lethal unforeseen consequences of this outbreak — post.

1. The virus is highly contagious and difficult to contain because of asymptomatic transmissions. The number of cases will inevitably rise with your proposal to continue life as normal.
2. The fatality rates are low in the early stages of an outbreak when healthcare systems have enough resources to cope.
3. The fatality rates will greatly increase when the number of cases overwhelms the capacity of the system, (which will occur if we continue life as normal).
4. People seeking treatment for other conditions will not be able to access healthcare.

China’s CDC reports 13.8% of confirmed cases as severe, at the time of Feb 11. A lot of people are going to end up in the ICU being treated for acute respiratory distress syndrome.

You misunderstand the role of fear in epidemics

Why fear plays an important role in epidemic response.

The first effect of fear is social avoidance. This greatly reduces transmission rates of the virus, which allows supply chains and hospital resources to catch up.

Then there’s the stockpiling. You might think empty shelves at the supermarket is a bad thing, but you should direct your criticism to the people in Wuhan who are under lockdown. Fear can be rational — if people reasonably believe that an extended lockdown will be in place, it makes sense for people to secure vital resources while they still can.

And lastly, fear can be used as political pressure to make sure that the authorities are prioritizing public health. Or would you rather have world leaders downplaying the virus and focusing on “the economy”?